About the Stock Picks List

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What is the Stock Picks List? 

The Stock Picks List is a select list of approximately 50 to 100 undervalued stocks, each picked quarterly by our Value Investing Model.  The Model actively screens over 2,000 NYSE companies.  At the beginning of each calendar quarter, a new Stock Picks List is published on the StockValuePicks.com website.

Stocks are initially added to the Stock Picks List as "buy" recommendations, carried forward to the next Stock Picks List as continuing buy or "hold" recommendations, and eventually deleted as "sell" recommendations.  In general, stock picks and recommendations do not change until the next quarterly publication of the Stock Picks List.  The only exception occurs when there is a special alert changing a buy or hold recommendation to a sell recommendation during the current quarter, due to (i) the rising market price for the stock, (ii) a sharply negative earnings announcement by the company during the quarter, or (iii) de-listing of the stock by the NYSE usually due to a takeover of the company by another company.

feed icon New:  With a simple RSS Feed link added to your RSS Reader, you can receive automatically get update notices on your Internet browser whenever there is a change made to the Stock Picks List.  See the Home Page for details.

The Stock Picks List is ready to be used "as is".   All stock picks on the List have been screened and found to be undervalued (in the case of buy recommendations) or have recently been undervalued (in the case of hold or sell recommendations); some stocks are significantly undervalued.

The Stock Picks List displays each stock pick in the following format, with a buy, hold or sell recommendation and summary data values for each of the Company Selection Factors that the Model used to select the stock:

Company Symbol Trend1 History2 Upside3 Stability4 Recommendation
XYZ CORP. XYZ 16 18 10 94% BUY
Company Selection Factors
1Trend   - length of time-series data considered, in years
2History   - consecutive quarters that the stock has been picked
3Upside   - unrealized leverage of the stock; higher numbers mean more upside price potential
4Stability   - R-square of earnings relative to trend line; higher percentages mean more earnings stability

In addition, the Stock Picks List includes a hyperlink to the Company Website and these four downloadable Company Graphs for each of the stock picks:

Stock-Price Trend Earnings Trend
graph graph
Recent Quarterly Results Price-Earnings Regression
graph graph

How Do You Use the Stock Picks List?

1. Buy a stock if it has a "buy" recommendation, i.e., when the stock is significantly undervalued.
  Note: In the case of stocks that have a "hold" recommendation, you have missed your opportunity to buy these stocks when they were significantly undervalued and had a buy recommendation on earlier editions of the Stock Picks List.

To select stocks from the List, you can either:

  randomly select a sample of stocks, as described in
How Many Stocks Should I Purchase? below, or
  customize your stock selection, as described in
How Do I Customize my Stock Selection? below.
  Your stock buying decisions should always incorporate some basic analysis of your existing stock portfolio and other investment assets, so that you balance risks and build diversity of investments.  One commonly used technique is to select stocks of companies operating in different industries or economic sectors.
2. Sell a stock when it has a "sell" recommendation on the next quarterly Stock Picks List or if there is a special alert changing its buy or hold recommendation to a sell recommendation during the current quarter.
  Note: The Stock Picks List is not a day-trading or market-timing tool.  The average holding period for stocks on past Stock Picks List is between one and two years, but the history of each stock is unique.  You can check the holding period for each stock pick on the current Stock Picks List by looking at the "History" value of the stock found on the Stock Picks List.
3. Reinvest your sales proceeds and dividends according to the Reinvestment Strategy table appearing on the current Stock Picks List.

The Performance Results page of this Website shows the results of using the Stock Picks List.

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To learn more about the Stock Picks List,
and how it can work for you, see below.

How Do I Customize My Stock Selection?

If you are analytically inclined, you can customize your stock selections from the Stock Picks List to fit your personal investment strategy and your existing stock portfolio,

  by making your own evaluation of the Company Selection Factors and the Company Graphs we provide, for example by assigning more or less weight to one or more of the Factors;
  by using other information that only you have, such as the composition of your current stock portfolio, your other investment assets, and your financial resources available for stock investing;
  by using other investment information sources, such as company websites, financial newspapers, libraries, and an investment adviser if appropriate;
  by selecting a random or planned sample of stocks from the Stock Picks List (see How Many Stocks Should I Purchase? below).

How Does the Free Trial Work?

When you submit your first Request Form, you get free and unlimited access to the StockValuePicks.com website and the Stock Picks List with its accompanying graphics and company data for two calendar quarters.

We are giving you this lengthy free-trial use of these powerful value-investing tools because we are confident that, after using the Stock Picks List, you will want to continue to receive it to keep your personal portfolio of stocks updated and consistent with the Model's selected stocks.  We recommend that you use the Stock Picks List for at least six months to realize optimal test results.

How and When Do You Subscribe?

The Subscription Price for the Stock Picks List after your free two-quarters trial period has expired, is only $19.95 per quarter payable by Visa® or Mastercard®.  You simply add your credit card information to the next Request Form that you submit after the free-trial period and update the other information as needed on that Request Form and on each additional Request Form that you send to us.  Creditcard information is not retained by us, except to execute the purchase.

With each quarterly subscription, you will be able to view or download the Stock Picks List with its accompanying graphics and company data as often as you want during the next three months at no additional charge.

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To learn more about the Stock Picks List,
and how it can work for you, see below.

How Many Stocks Should I Purchase?

The optimal number of stocks to select from the Stock Picks List depends on your personal situation: your financial resources, your need or desire to diversify your total investment portfolio, and the amount of brokerage commissions and other transaction costs you are willing to bear in order to achieve diversification.  For example, buying a single share of the stock of each company on the Stock Picks List would be a diversified approach but it would not be efficient in terms of brokerage fees.  On the other hand, acquiring 100 shares of each of the company stocks on the Stock Picks List would be efficient for purposes of lowering per share brokerage costs, but it might not be realistic from a budget standpoint nor prudent as an initial investment.  Somewhere between these two extremes is the optimal approach for you.

To help you make the right decision for your personal situation, we provide the following sampling distribution statistics based on the Model's performance results during the First Quarter 2002, as compared to the end of the previous quarter:

Number of buy and hold stocks on the Stock Picks List   88
Model's performance results during 1Q of 2002   +7.1%
If you had
purchased the
"buy" stocks of:
You had a
86% chance
that your results
were between:
You had a
94% chance
that your results
were between:
8 Companies 4.1% and 10.2% 1.2% and 13.2%
10 Companies 4.4% and 9.8% 1.7% and 12.5%
12 Companies 4.7% and 9.5% 2.3% and 12.0%
18 Companies 5.2% and 9.0% 3.3% and 10.9%

Each of the above results compares favorably with the performance of the recognized market averages during the First Quarter 2002:

Stock Picks List7.1%
S&P 500 Index -0.1%
Dow Jones Industrials +3.8%
NASDAQ Composite -5.4%
Wilshire 5000 Index +0.6%
Russell 2000 Index +3.7%

You can reduce the chance of an extreme result by increasing the number of companies on the Stock Picks List that are in your portfolio.  However, remember that statistics only measure of the mathematical probability that an event will occur.  There is no such thing as a "statistical certainty". 

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